You are to create a plan to forecast production output, not future sales

You are to create a plan to forecast production output, not future sales. The key is to provide details on how you want the staff to determine the needed future production output for Kibby and Strand in months. You need to explicitly describe the data and quantitative methods you want the staff to use to derive and apply for this forecast plan. Be sure you include any trends or seasonality of the data in the plan. The plan should include the forecasting objectives. Identify at least two advantages and two disadvantages of the chosen forecasting method. Also, identify problems we may encounter by collecting the necessary data for the forecast. This plan will be utilized by the receiving department to ensure we can accommodate the raw material, the production department to ensure we have the resources needed, and to provide shipping with an idea of its workload in future months.

 

Your target audience for the forecasting plan is the manager of each department. Other departments such as HR and Marketing will also use the plan to inform their decision process.———————————

The document should be prepared consistent with the APA writing style and reflect higher-level cognitive processing (analysis, synthesis, and or evaluation).

 

 

consider yourself to be the Production Manager of Kibby and Strand, the company in the scenario.

 

Create a forecasting plan to forecast production output for Kibby and Strand. The plan should include forecasting objectives, the data to be used in forecasting, and the quantitative methods the staff is to use in creating the production output forecast.

 

 

The data you use should be historical production output data, and account for seasonality since the textiles Kibby and Strand produces will change with the seasons. After you determine the data you plan to use, then pick a quantitative method from Chapter 3 of the textbook to turn the data into a forecast value for production output. Recommend you forecast output by the month or quarter

 

 

You’re not going to calculate an actual forecast value because you do not have historical data. The purpose of the forecasting plan is to provide direction to the staff so they can create the forecast

 

 

 

Additional Instructions:

 

Structure of Forecasting Plan

 

Objective of Plan

 

Your plan should state the objective is to forecast future production output, and provide details on the data to be used and quantitative method that will turn the data into a forecast. You are creating a forecasting plan to forecast production output, not future sales. There is a difference. Output is what we actually produce and sales is what we hope to produce. Sometimes outages, weather, etc. prevent us from producing what we have contacted to produce.

 

 

Historical Data to Use in the Forecast

 

Since K&S is a seasonal business we have to consider this in the data we select. The best data to use is production output data from quarters of previous years. You may ask why not use the past 6 months, it is more recent? The reason we do not use the past 6 months is because that is Spring and Summer. The textiles we produce during those quarters are much different than the textiles produced in the Fall and Winter quarters. By selecting historical data from previous Fall quarters, we are incorporating seasonality into the forecast to ensure we’re using the most reliable data. Recommend you use at least 3 years of historical data.

 

Quantitative Method to Create the Forecast

 

We need to select a quantitative forecasting method from chapter 3 that will turn the data into a forecast.

 

2. Conduct Research – 3 to 5 peer reviewed sources. The textbook is a peer reviewed source.

 

Some research questions are:

 

How to formulate forecasting objective?

 

What data should I consider using for the forecast?

 

What quantitative forecasting models should be considered?

 

Conduct research on what type of data works best for what you want to forecast. Look for articles on forecasting production output. Also, look at the textbook and other articles for how to integrate seasonality into the forecasting plan.

 

Conduct research on quantitative methods for preparing a forecast. Chapter 3 of the textbook has all the different methods you should need, but you are free to look at other sources. In your research also look for how many data points a particular quantitative method requires so you can state that in the plan.

 

Look on Google Scholar first to see if you can find good peer reviewed journal articles. If you go to Google Scholar and search “Forecasting textile production” you will get some good hits with free articles. Here’s one: https://www.iksadjournal.com/index.php/iksad/article/view/177/173Links to an external site.

 

You can download the pdf for free and it has some good information. Especially the five-step forecasting process on page 604.

 

3. Write the Plan

 

Use 3rd person, active voice, for writing directives.

 

Use bold text or underlining to create section headings for the three sections.

 

You are writing a plan the staff can execute to create a forecast of future production output. It is not possible for the staff to execute

 

 

 

 

 

Example of format attached :

You are to create a plan to forecast production output, not future sales

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